TruaceTracing the truth around AITuesday, September 15, 2026
The Index

What the evidence says.What the public feels.

Ranks distinct AI gain and problem claims from the published record. Scores reward impact, independent source strength, scale, confidence, and recency.

1,418 results
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AI gains · 787

68
GainHealth· Stable· Evidence: Moderate (1 source)

Machine learning models that integrate clinical and radiomics features achieved high pooled discrimination for predicting hematoma expansion, poor functional outcome, and mortality in adults with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

A systematic review and meta-analysis up to September 2025 synthesized 83 studies involving at least 136,840 patients to evaluate machine learning models predicting hematoma expansion, poor functional outcome, and mortality after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage. Pooled analyses found that models combining clinical and radiomics features achieved the highest discrimination, with C-indexes of 0.822, 0.850, and 0.860 respectively, largely from internal validation sets.

Impact 30%49
Evidence 25%95
Scale 20%35
Confidence 15%87
Recency 10%91

Updated Aug 1, 2026 · TRV-2026-0611

68
GainHealth· Stable· Evidence: Moderate (1 source)

Survival models including machine learning approaches predicted imminent 30-day opioid overdose following a first opioid-related diagnosis with C-indices up to 0.745, identifying prior overdose and opioid misuse as strongest predictors for proactive clinical intervention.

Using longitudinal EHR data from the All of Us Research Program, a prospective cohort study tracked adults after a first opioid-related diagnosis to predict overdose within 30 days. Classical and machine learning survival models were tested, with 560 overdoses observed among 14,737 individuals and best test-set C-indices between 0.708 and 0.745.

Impact 30%49
Evidence 25%95
Scale 20%35
Confidence 15%87
Recency 10%91

Updated Jul 31, 2026 · TRV-2026-0603

68
GainHealth· Stable· Evidence: Moderate (1 source)

ConvNeXt-based AI trained on 3676 smartphone images from 1016 patients achieved AUCs of 0.825-0.860 for EASI component scores >=2 and >0.900 for score 3, supporting use as an educational tool to standardize EASI scoring.

Researchers prospectively collected 3676 smartphone images from 1016 atopic dermatitis patients at 16 Japanese institutions and trained a ConvNeXt model to score four EASI signs against dermatologist ratings. The model achieved AUCs of 0.825 to 0.860 for scores >=2 and over 0.900 for score 3, with erythema most accurately detected.

Impact 30%49
Evidence 25%95
Scale 20%35
Confidence 15%87
Recency 10%91

Updated Jul 31, 2026 · TRV-2026-0602

68
GainHealth· Stable· Evidence: Moderate (1 source)

A preoperative model using Evans index, tumor-fourth ventricle relationship, and preoperative CSF diversion status achieved good external discrimination for postoperative hydrocephalus after posterior fossa tumor resection.

Investigators developed and externally validated a machine learning model to stratify risk of postoperative hydrocephalus after posterior fossa tumor resection using data from 1,073 patients treated at five tertiary centers from 2013 to 2024. After screening 30 variables, they built a three-variable preoperative model using Evans index, tumor-fourth ventricle relationship, and preoperative CSF diversion status, with SVM showing AUC 0.877 in the external cohort.

Impact 30%49
Evidence 25%95
Scale 20%35
Confidence 15%87
Recency 10%91

Updated Jul 31, 2026 · TRV-2026-0600

AI problems · 631

67
ProblemCrime· Stable· Evidence: Moderate (1 source)

Detection skill did not generalize across modalities, and confidence did not track voice accuracy, leaving people vulnerable to deepfake-enabled identity theft and financial fraud despite some detection ability.

By June 2026, researchers had tested whether people can tell real from synthetic faces and voices and whether that skill transfers across senses. In a preregistered study, participants classified both types of stimuli, and performance for each modality was significantly above chance when measured with signal detection theory.

Impact 30%49
Evidence 25%95
Scale 20%35
Confidence 15%87
Recency 10%88

Updated Jul 13, 2026 · TRV-2026-0151

67
ProblemEducation· Stable· Evidence: Moderate (1 source)

Same preservice teachers raised concerns that LLM outputs contained inaccuracies, encouraged overreliance, and were less useful for validation phases of modeling.

By April 2026, researchers studied 150 mastere28099s-level preservice teachers at a German university as they collaboratively solved three authentic mathematical modeling problems with large language models, analyzing interaction worksheets, surveys, and interviews.

Impact 30%49
Evidence 25%95
Scale 20%35
Confidence 15%87
Recency 10%88

Updated Jul 13, 2026 · TRV-2026-0148

67
ProblemHealth· Stable· Evidence: Moderate (1 source)

Longitudinal AI use among cancer specialists led to intuition rust and skill atrophy, gradually dulling expert judgment.

What happened: By April 2026, researchers completed a year-long study of AI use among cancer specialists and found that initial operational gains hid intuition rust, described as the gradual dulling of expert judgment, which later evolved into chronic harms such as skill atrophy and identity commoditization.

Impact 30%49
Evidence 25%95
Scale 20%35
Confidence 15%87
Recency 10%88

Updated Jul 13, 2026 · TRV-2026-0147

67
ProblemMedia & Arts· Stable· Evidence: Moderate (1 source)

An AI-generated imitation of Drake and The Weeknd's voices in a viral track convinced millions of listeners it was authentic, requiring a label disclosure.

By June 2026, a law review article described how generative AI had been used to create a viral 2023 track, 'Heart on My Sleeve,' that imitated Drake and The Weeknd. The label confirmed the vocals were not the artists but an AI imitation trained on their recordings, after millions had been convinced it was real.

Impact 30%49
Evidence 25%95
Scale 20%35
Confidence 15%87
Recency 10%88

Updated Jul 13, 2026 · TRV-2026-0146

Recomputed live from the record · Sep 15, 2026, 7:41 AM